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| Ukraine demonstrators protest invasion by Russia. |
It is beyond conception when considering so much death and violence has been caused because man believes he has a destiny. To be sure, the one thing that causes so much turmoil in the world, is when man thinks he has a destiny, and will do anything to achieve it, good or bad. The thing is, however, there is no destiny, it's all in their head.
We're talking of course about Russian President Vladimir Putin. What in the world is he thinking?
A report in the National Post this morning went a long way toward answering that question when it explained that Putin’s march into Ukraine this week was about ensuring no one in his country sees the emerging democracy as a model to follow combined with a belief the West won’t have the resolve to stop him.
Putin, a former KGB officer, has been ruling Russia since 1999 when he became acting president after Boris Yeltsin resigned. He has seen four U.S. presidents come and go and has held onto his power and position for more than two decades.
Putin served two full terms as president between 2000 and 2008 and stepped down due to term limits that didn’t allow someone to serve three consecutive terms as Russian president. But he didn’t move far from power, staying on as prime minister until 2012, when he became president again. The 69-year-old has successfully pushed for changes to the Russian constitution allowing him to now stay as president until 2036.
In the last decade, Putin has fought wars in Georgia and annexed Crimea from Ukraine. He has helped prop up leaders in Belarus and Kazakhstan from internal dissent and drives toward democracy.
Aurel Braun, a professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto, said the invasion of Ukraine was about making sure the country doesn’t prosper.
“His larger goal is to make sure that either he captures all the Ukraine or he makes sure that Ukraine is a failed state,” Braun said.
Braun added that Putin’s long reign has not significantly improved the lives of the Russian people, the country is riddled with corruption and despite its many advantages its economy sputters. “Russia is a failed state in many ways. It’s the largest geographical state in the world that has astonishing natural wealth, great scientific talent. And the per capita GDP in Russia is lower than in Romania or Turkey,” he said.
Russia’s GDP per capita is still higher than Ukraine’s, but the country has been growing in recent years. It has received western help to diversify and to strengthen and train its military. Braun said Putin can’t afford to live next to a success story like that.
“He does not want to have an alternate model of a successful, stable democracy next door in Ukraine, that would risk contamination.”
Roland Paris, a former foreign policy advisor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and now professor at the University of Ottawa, said Putin also views Ukraine as a historic part of Russia and still views the fall of the Soviet Union as a calamity.
“Vladimir Putin is trying to reestablish a politically compliant Ukraine, which he sees as both a historic part of the Russian nation, and as a potential threat to Russia, unless it’s governed by a compliant regime.”
He said pushing back against NATO expansion and any attempt at democratization among his neighbours fits with Putin’s world view, which sees both as a threat to Russia.
“Another part of it is a very deep resentment he holds towards the west, which he thinks exploited Russian weakness after the end of the Cold War.”
Putin’s move this week was met with swift sanction and condemnations, as western countries including Canada have been warning for weeks would happen if Russia invaded Ukraine.
But will sanctions be enough to stop a very determined Putin? Certainly not likely with Russia's key ally in foreign relations, China's Xi Jinping, endorsing Putin's right to do whatever he wants.
Meantime, we in North America wait and see...and pray for our Ukrainian friends in the fight of, and for, their lives.
The whole world is on standby for the possible emergence of a new order.
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